The cruise industry hailed the CDC for dropping their COVID cruise travel alerts, saying it shows cruising is safe. Does it really mean that?
Lately, the travel question I’m asked the most is, “Now that the CDC dropped cruise travel alerts, is it safe to take a cruise?” Few people are satisfied with my answer when it comes to cruise travel alerts: “It depends.” I understand that this is a less than satisfying answer, but a yes or no answer isn’t possible at this time for those who are fully vaccinated and boosted.
On the other hand, if you’re not fully vaccinated and boosted, the answer is to cruise travel alerts, “No, it’s not safe to cruise at this time.”
There are a myriad of factors to review to determine your COVID risk for cruise travel safety. The answer to the question “Is it safe enough for me to cruise,” is difficult. It depends on the daily new caseloads, your physical condition, and age. Plus, the cruise line’s COVID protocols affect cruise travel safety.
COVID-19 cases have come down substantially in the U.S., but in Europe, often a harbinger for the U.S., cases are trending much higher.
In mid-January in the U.S., new daily COVID-19 cases consistently eclipsed 750,000. Today, new cases average around 35,000 daily, but they’re trending upward in some locations. In Europe, daily new cases per capita in some countries are well above the U.S. That’s troubling, as European trends have been a harbinger for the U.S., France, Germany and Italy currently have more new cases each day than the U.S., despite populations that are less than a quarter of the U.S.
More than 40 cruise ships continue to have COVID-19 cases, many more than ships with no cases.
According to the CDC last week, 31 cruise ships reported no known COVID cases, but 44 cruise ships confirmed that more than 0.3 percent of their total of passengers and crew were diagnosed with COVID-19. I know that sounds like very few cases per cruise ship, but if you’re infected and have comorbidities, even if you’re vaccinated, your case could be serious. If you’re not fully vaccinated and boosted, that could be deadly. (Comorbidities are diseases or medical conditions present in a patient who gets another disease. Being over 70 years of age is COVID comorbidity.) The number of cruise ship COVID cases could be substantially undercounted, as cruisers who don’t know they have COVID until after their cruise likely never report the case to their cruise line.
Long COVID is a problem for cruisers whether they’re vaccinated or not.
Long COVID is another serious risk that cruisers must consider. This long COVID affliction is when new or returning symptoms occur well after your COVID infection has ended. Long COVID can sometimes be nothing more than a nuisance, but it can also be debilitating, such as when organs are damaged, blood clots occur or when COVID results in brain fog or mental health issues. Researchers estimate that from 10 to 30 percent of COVID survivors get long COVID for as long as six months after their initial infection. Vaccinations generally reduce the risk and effects of long COVID, but some vaccinated individuals can and do suffer from long COVID.
COVID vaccines are undeniably effective at reducing serious COVID infection.
COVID vaccines were primarily designed to protect people from becoming seriously ill or possibly dying from COVID. For example, according to the State of Washington’s Health Department, unvaccinated people from 12 years and up, in various age groups, are from 12 to 18 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID than those who are fully vaccinated. Among seniors, unvaccinated individuals are not only 13 times more likely to be hospitalized, but 15 times more likely to die from COVID than fully vaccinated seniors. While COVID continues to infect some fully vaccinated people, its effectiveness is undeniable.
If you’re fully vaccinated, but become infected on a cruise, it’s likely that it won’t result in serious infection, but you’ll still be required to endure the same shipboard isolation as if you weren’t vaccinated. Being isolated isn’t fun and it’s very boring.
Cruise ship COVID protocols have a mixed record of effectiveness.
Each cruise line has its own COVID-19 shipboard protocols, but in general, the cruise lines require cruisers age 12 and older to be fully vaccinated. Most require testing within three days of sailing or sooner and many require testing prior to boarding. The cruise line requirement for passengers from age 12 and up to be fully vaccinated is a plus, but while children under 12 years of age are less likely to become infected, they add to the COVID infection risk for older children and adults.
Testing helps keep cruisers safer than if no testing is required, but its effectiveness is considerably limited in a person’s early days of infection, days during which people are contagious whether or not they display symptoms. Both RT-PCR and Antigen tests will produce a false negative most of the time in the first few days people are infected. It takes about five days of infection before COVID-19 tests become reliably effective. During those early days of infection, passengers are likely to infect other passengers with whom they spend time in close proximity.
The CDC was clear that when they dropped their tiered system of alerts, they weren’t saying that cruising was “safe.”
Last month, when the CDC ended its tiered system of alerts, publicly rating the risk of taking a cruise during the COVID pandemic, the cruise industry hailed the change. Tom McAlpin, CEO of Virgin Voyages said of the end of the alerts, “While we feel this was a long time coming, we recognize this move as a demonstration of all of the hard work this industry has done to ensure that we’re offering the safest way to travel.” Frankly, that’s not what the action taken by the CDC means.
In fact, on the CDC website it currently answers the question, “Can traveling on a cruise increase my risk of getting COVID-19?” by stating, “Yes. The chance of getting COVID-19 on cruise ships is high because the virus spreads easily between people in close quarters onboard ships.” For this reason, CDC recommends the following two groups of people avoid traveling on cruise ships, including river cruises, worldwide:
1. People who are not up to date with their COVID-19 vaccines.
2. People with an increased risk of severe illness, regardless of vaccination status, including older adults and adults of any age with serious chronic medical conditions such as heart disease, chronic lung disease, and diabetes, plus children with underlying medical conditions.
It’s important to understand that COVID spreads easily between people “in close quarters on board ships.”
I reiterate the key part of the CDC statement about COVID cruise safety, “…the virus spreads easily between people in close quarters onboard ships…”
The answer to the question, “Now that the CDC has dropped cruise alerts, is it safe to take a cruise?” by necessity is nuanced.
If you’re not vaccinated and boosted, in my opinion, cruising isn’t safe, whether you’re an adult or child. If you’re vaccinated and boosted, you’re at less risk of becoming infected and contracting a serious COVID case, unless you have one or more comorbidities, including being a senior citizen. Young, healthy people are at much less risk, but I can’t say that anyone is actually “safe,” particularly because the possibility of contracting long COVID is a reality for every cruiser.
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After many years working in corporate America as a chemical engineer, executive and eventually CFO of a multinational manufacturer, Ned founded a tech consulting company and later restarted NSL Photography, his photography business. Before entering the corporate world, Ned worked as a Public Health Engineer for the Philadelphia Department of Public Health. As a well known corporate, travel and wildlife photographer, Ned travels the world writing about travel and photography, as well as running photography workshops, seminars and photowalks. Visit Ned’s Photography Blog and Galleries.
