Conventional wisdom was to be an early bird and book airline tickets as early as possible.
Back years ago, that was true, especially with mileage award tickets. Early birds got the rewards. I have memories of waiting up until midnight 330 days or so in advance in hopes of getting one of the few “free” tickets offered on a given flight.
Many airlines do not even release award tickets, especially in premium classes, until an algorithm decides some nebulous date. And some flights never end up with award tickets at all. If they do, it’s some insanity like a half-million-mile roundtrip.
The million-dollar question is when to book.
Now, in theory, if someone has a half million miles, they could book a trip and hope the amount goes down. But no guarantees. Depending on the airline and status, there can be penalties for redepositing miles.
But actually paying for tickets can be as bad or worse. For example, many people plan vacations, especially international vacations or trips involving cruises, almost a year or more in advance. And long international flights are when even people who typically fly economy class consider upgrading to business class.
I’ve got clients looking into flights for next fall, and even in the shoulder season, the lowest fares are showing sold out. Flights on airlines like United in business class cost from $7500-$10,000 — lower fares are available only with odd connections, often overnight.
Look at the flights themselves; some have zero seats sold.
So will the prices go down? Or are airlines hoping they’ll fill up at higher prices? If airlines allowed passengers to downgrade and get money back, that might be an option. But in general, the fares are nonrefundable. Now, some travelers who fly regularly can play the game of canceling — booking a new ticket — and saving the original ticket. But the original tickets are often only good for a year. PLUS, some airlines demand they be rebooked at the time of cancellation and not just banked for future use.
Again, there are exceptions: some airlines allow passengers to take advantage of lower fares, and some allow extra rebooking time. These things change, though, so I won’t give examples as they are likely to be wrong when anyone reads this post.
When I’ve brought the issue up with airline personnel, the answer is often, “Well, passengers can book refundable tickets.” True. But price-conscious travelers frequently don’t have that luxury.
For anyone going on a cruise or tour, or, say, attending a wedding, there is often little flexibility on dates.
Hotels and cruise lines frequently have last-minute specials “for new bookings only.” They can be an issue, especially when already booked guests see the deals. But airlines have never officially worked that way.
There are other issues for early bird bookers. Seat assignments can disappear. The airlines do not always alert passengers when that happens if there’s an equipment change. Also, an equipment change can mean that a traveler can carefully book to be on, say, a newer Boeing 787 Dreamliner and have it changed to an older 777. Or, they can choose a business class flight with good flat beds and have it change to an older narrow body with standard seats. And a change of plane does not qualify for a refund. (Though a good travel agent may be able to change the ticket.)
Unofficially, however, the system increasingly works against those who book as early birds. And with a new administration likely, if anything, to remove regulations that help consumers, sadly, it’s likely to get worse.
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Janice Hough is a California-based travel agent a travel blogger and a part-time comedy writer. A frequent flier herself, she’s been doing battle with airlines, hotels, and other travel companies for over three decades. Besides writing for Travelers United, Janice has a humor blog at Leftcoastsportsbabe.com (Warning, the political and sports humor therein does not represent the views of anyone but herself.)