Photo by Kevin Woblick Unsplash
At the time of writing, the US-Iran war is in a cease fire. Sort of. What happens to airline prices in the future?
But permanent peace talks just broke down. So, today, “Who knows?”
Like most travel advisors (or agents), I get asked to predict what will happen with this war on a regular basis since it started.
But when people ask if I think prices will go down anytime soon, my honest opinion is, “No.” Even if this war actually ends. Especially in premium economy and business classes.
First — Flights again, especially in premium classes, seem pretty full already this spring and summer.
Hard to know exactly why, It could be related to COVID and passengers wanting more space, and then getting spoiled. Or it may be a K-shaped economy (ie, the wealthy are doing better than middle class and lower income travelers). Perhaps, for many, coach travel feels increasingly unpleasant. Travelers will scrimp on other things to avoid coach.
Second — Cheap prices for Europe.
Travelers going to Africa (safaris!), India, and sometimes even Asia often took advantage of good fares to go via the Mideast on airlines like Emirates, Qatar, or Ethiopian. And increasingly, clients are nervous about booking anything near the Middle East. Even Turkish Airlines via Istanbul makes some people nervous. This means that even travelers not going to Europe are going via Europe, which makes transatlantic flights fuller.
Third — US airlines have raised fuel surcharges about 35% since the war started.
Now, fuel surcharges are over $2,800 for a business-class ticket to Europe. I can’t remember when a fuel surcharge went down.
Fourth — Beyond fuel surcharges, airlines have all raised their checked-bag fees.
Those auxilliary fees NEVER go down once they’ve gone up. We’re already at a point that with some sale fares for short flight the cost for a preassigned seat and a bag might be more than the ticket itself.
Fifth — Major airlines make most of their money now on credit cards, not flying passengers.
So if they lose paying passengers, as long as travelers keep chasing rewards, they’ll be fine.
Sixth -– Major carriers have more resources to survive a downturn.
If Americans cut back on flying, it’s quite possible some discount carriers, especially, may not survive or may need major cutbacks. And if discount carriers stop flying, the “big boys” will take advantage of the lack of competition and hike airline prices even more.
Short version: We don’t know.
Yes, a travel downturn could prompt some short-term sales. And if so, some airlines may offer a partial voucher for a fare drop. If you’re a regular traveler, other carriers will let you cancel and hold the full value of the original ticket for a year while buying a new one.
If you see a fare that’s affordable now, take it.
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Janice Hough is a California-based travel agent a travel blogger and a part-time comedy writer. A frequent flier herself, she’s been doing battle with airlines, hotels, and other travel companies for over three decades. Besides writing for Travelers United, Janice has a humor blog at Leftcoastsportsbabe.com (Warning, the political and sports humor therein does not represent the views of anyone but herself.)
